Introduction
The Indian natural rubber sector registered a growth of 8.3 percent in consumption in 2022-23 over the previous year. Rubber production increased to 839,000 tonnes in 2022-23 from 775,000 tonnes in 2021-22. Meanwhile, consumption increased from 1,238,000 tonnes in 2021-22 to 1,350,000 tonnes in 2022-23.1 Major rubber producing states in India are Kerala, Tamilnadu and Karnataka; other includes Tripura, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Goa, Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Kerala has a long tradition in the cultivation of plantation crops.2, 3, 4, 5 Rubber, tea, coffee and cardamom are the major plantation crops in Kerala. Kerala holds a dominant position both in the area of cultivation as well as in the production of natural rubber in India. Kerala at present has 550650 hectares of area, 492500 tonnes of production and 894 kg/ha of productivity. In every market price of a commodity is determined by the equality between market forces, demand and supply.3, 6 But in the agriculture market previous price play vital role in determining current supply.4, 7 Therefore higher previous prices result higher supply of that commodity. It causes reduction in the price of the same commodity.
Materials and Methods
The study is solely relied on secondary data; collected from Rubber Board, publications of Govt. of Kerala and India. Growth rate, Correlation, and Regression are used for data analysis. To check the cobweb in rubber market correlation between current output or supply and previous year price up to 5 year back is used. Correlation between current output and previous prices were estimated with the following regression model.
Y= 31901 + bXn-p
F test is applied to test the significance of b
Results, Analysis and Discussion
Table 1 shows the annual growth rate of area, production and productivity of rubber. It clearly revealed that there is an increasing and decreasing trend in annual growth rate in area, production and productivity. Fall in the price of rubber results fall in the rubber cultivated area. In the case of productivity, six years witnessed a negative trend. The production and productivity moves in the same manner.
Table 1
Annualgrowth rate of area, productivity and production
In Figure 1, the area curve shows that, there is no continuous increase or continuous decrease. It moves like a smooth straight line for a static manner. But in the case of production and productivity, the curve moves in opposite manner of area curve, that is continuous upward and downward movements.
Table 2
Regressionstatistics
Table 2 shows regression statistics. In this table Pn represents current price of rubber. Pn-1 to Pn-6 represents previous six year prices respectively. It revealed that there is no significant relationship between current price and current quantity supplied, the correlation value is only 0.06662 and P-value is greater than 0.05. But move to previous prices especially in the case of three and four year back, prices significantly correlated with current quantity supply, that is, when move from current to previous year prices quantity supplied is strongly correlated with previous prices.Table 2 also shows that the correlation between current quantity supplied and four year back price is significantly correlated; in that case P-value is minimum, compared to other previous year prices. So the study chooses this regression model (Y = a + 0.067 Pn-4).
Conclusion
Rubber is an important plantation crop cultivated in Kerala. The state holds a dominant position in area, production and productivity. The study shows an increasing and decreasing trend in annual growth rate in area, production and productivity. Fall in the price of rubber results; fall in the rubber cultivated area. In the case of productivity, six years witnessed a negative trend. It also revealed that there is no significant relationship between current price and current quantity supplied, the correlation value is only 0.06662 and P-value is greater than 0.05. But move to previous prices especially in the case of three and four year back, prices significantly correlated with current quantity supply, that is, when move from current to previous year prices quantity supplied is strongly correlated with previous prices. Therefore, cobweb phenomenon exist in rubber production market in Kerala.
